Проблемные регионы ресурсного типа. Азиатская часть России - Коллектив авторов

д-р экон. наук А. Н. Пилясов (гл. 8); от Института географии РАН (Москва):

д-р геогр. наук С. А. Тархов (гл. 13);

от Сибирского государственного университета путей сообщения (Новосибирск):

д-р экон. наук В. Я. Ткаченко (гл. 13).

От администрации Красноярского края (Красноярск):

Т. Г. Шереметова (гл. 15)

Introduction

In this monograph the experience of studies within 2002–2004 period made by a big group of researchers of various specialities belonging to many academic, research or development organizations located in Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk and Moscow has been generalized. The book has been designed by Mark Konstantinovich Bandman (1924–2002), remarkable man, authoritative scientist with a world-known name. He was the head of economic and geographic research using mathematical methods at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of Siberian branch of Academy of Sciences of the USSR and then Russian Federation during more than 30 year period. We consider finishing this work our duty, all the more his ideas and theoretical basics became the foundation of many chapters and paragraphs of this monograph.

The conduction of Baikal economical forum in 2000 in Irkutsk gave a reason for the President of Russian Federation to set a problem of both strategy of economic development of Siberia and transport strategy of whole Russia. Studies made by the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering within both strategies confirmed once again that the growth of Russian economy depends on the development of its Asian part strongly. In addition, the local growth rate of Gross Domestic Product should not outrun the average one in Russia. Moreover the territory labor division has its present shape when process industries, services and other industries having high share of value added are concentrated in European part of the country while resource industries – in Asian part. However these industries predetermine the possibility of stable motion, not dependant from external factors and the third countries, of whole Russia along the way of meeting the crisis of 90s. The role both Asian Russia resources and Asian economic and geographic location continues staying crucial. While outer, visible, and exposed in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), demonstrates itself more on the West of country, deep, material basics of this effect are founded mainly in the East. This is the reason why we consider necessary to separate the problems of this part of the country and pay attention on the must of active government regional policy in Asian Russia and more active participation of the state in realization of a number of big infrastructure projects which commercial effectiveness (as distinct from national economic effectiveness) only partly answers the market frameworks.

Government participation can differs in forms and the financial part of such participation is not the most effective. More important, in our opinion, to create the conditions for realization of above mentioned projects by private companies which interests coincide with state ones at this very moment and territory. Moreover, the state, its federal bodies and regional authorities, should play the important role of a coordinator for the interests of companies and firms towards the achievement of common national goals.

Siberian resources, both mineral and natural (including territory itself) are the «titbits» for many states having the lack of such resources. And this lack will increase in future. This idea has been known and stated more than 100 years ago and the understanding that Siberia and Far East could not be considered only from the commercial point of view existed from the beginning. It was clear that to defend this territory easier and more effective by active numerous and prosperous population, not by army and fortresses. Present situation and new geopolitical state of Russia after the disintegration of the USSR make us seriously think about keeping our South territories and North water areas. Therefore state interest should be not only manifested but practical successful steps must be carried out towards economic development of this territory and other ways of federal presence involving army presence.

Processes of population growth continuing for four century period turn back. This is an unprecedented phenomenon in Russian history. It may not cause the big anxiety if re-emigration and population loss of Russians on Far East accompanied by the threat of Chinese immigration. Present estimation of demographic situation and the prospect of keeping Far East territories have an astonishing similarity with forecasts and hypotheses made more than 100 years ago. Theme of most scenarios on demographic future of Far East is like a statement of fatal predetermined and imminent loss of Far East domains of Russia/«Yellow danger, yellow threat, yellow expansion, yellow labor force, yellow domination» – is a lexicon of pre-soviet administrators of Far East, which was used by them while claiming for urgent help to higher state hierarchy. However higher authorities was not in a hurry like in our days because it had no ideas what to do and how to find finances to defend Far East frontiers, like in present time. Historical parallels though can not be directive orders in solving present problems. But they serve a lesson how to seek and find optimal practical solutions of our modern problems.

Once more our society feels confusion while meeting the challenge of present time though this challenge has more than a century ages. In Russia almost always new is something that should be solved in past but was preserved and left for the future.

In the monograph two connected parts are distinguished: from the consideration of the problems of locating the place of Asian part of Russia in the economy of the country and integrated this part with the economies of frontier states (first part) to the selected interregional transport and energy projects and problems of formation of new institutional conditions for the realization of these projects (second part). It is stressed that all selected projects connected with the prospects of exploiting natural resources mainly, are located this way or another on limited territories – problem regions of resource type.

In the first part of this book the results of the studies of several problems of Russia in it Asian part are considered. On the basis of calculations of intersectoral interregional model the quantitative estimations of national economic effectiveness in strengthening interregional links are presented, for this purpose a basic transport network in Asian Russia should be created. The changes in geopolitical situation of Russia make us sufficiently revise relations with close neighbors, first of all China, taking into special account China’s quick rate of economic development and limitation in living space. Based on historical analysis of migration processes from China to eastern regions of our country, the desirable targeted policy of the state of attracting Russian population to these territories is grounded. Such a policy can be a «peaceful defensive factor» which is creating a «Peaceful belt of safety». On the Earth not so many regions left which resources can be involved in world production. Serious discussions start on the exploitation of Antarctic resources and even Moon resources. This is an attractive background for Asian Russia in the aspect of it development by transnational corporations especially taking into account cheap resources and qualified labor force, practical absence of ecological restrictions on this territory and in the opinion of some higher administrators – «being a heavy burden on Russian budget». It is impossible to ignore claims for «freezing» the development of Siberia and Far East, then to leave these territories until «better times» or even give to those who can act more efficient than Russia. This idea is strongly approved by western political leaders and «independent» researchers. Better answer for such «friendly» advices will be home studies and measures of creating a new latitude belt of economic development in the Asian part of country, which will be at the same time a belt of resource and transport independence of Russia. Of principal importance for choosing further ways of Asian Russia’s resource development, especially North area, is the solution of problem of land withdrawal for industrial (resource) development. This may strongly restrict basic conditions for preserving traditional way of life of native North population.

The second part of book is dedicated to the consideration of problems of big infrastructure interregional projects in energy and transport aspects and their realization. This is a basis for a whole further economic and demographic development. An approach to how to build these projects in a target of national economic level in order to have system effect is given. A group of energy projects is concentrated mainly on choosing the directions of use and transport of hydrocarbon raw material from East Siberian and Yakut deposits. The comparison of commercial and national economic criteria for choosing variants is made. Taking into account the special type of uncertainty (unable to process by statistical methods) in the long-term forecasting as well as unique characteristic of each project, an approach based on a method of fuzzy sets is proposed. In the projects of energy and transport development of Far East great attention is paid to the problems of cooperation with economies of frontier countries – China, North Korea, South Korea and Japan. Next the example of transition from national economy level to regional in Russia’s transport strategy is given. Krasnoyarsk transport complex, the problems of it development as a part of country transport complex and in the chain of region economy complex are considered. The ways of this complex’ development meeting the interests of the country as a whole and its own region and private companies are shown up. The problem of building interests is considered in the chapter on the forms of state and private partnership in the process of implementation of infrastructure projects. This problem is one of the strategic line in the realization of whole Transport strategy of Russia. Prospects of partnership with private companies having a large share of foreign capital require a special attention in the situation when these projects will be realized on frontier territories of Siberia and Far East.

Many proposals presented in this book have been declared on Baikal Economical Forum in 2004 (in Irkutsk). The timeliness and correctness of the conclusion that economical complexes of European and Asian parts of Russia are complementary was confirmed once again. Only joint interaction of these two complexes has all prerequisites for building highly competitive on world markets sector of economy, not dependent from the policy of certain states aimed at removal of competitors or world market fluctuations.

Часть I

Азиатская часть России в экономике страны: тяжелая ноша или кладовая благополучия

Глава 1

Освоение Сибири в зеркале либеральной экономической науки

Что такое в науке свет? Мнения по сему предмету разделяются на правильные и неправильные, а в числе последних есть даже много таких, кои, по всей справедливости, могут считаться дерзкими.

Суть Государственной региональной экономической политики в области формирования пространственной структуры хозяйственного комплекса субъектов федерации заключается в рациональном использовании и очень избирательном наращивании освоенной части территории и, ни в коем случае, не огульном осуществлении политики «сжатия активного экономического пространства».

1.1. Как возникла дискуссия о «сжатии» России

В течение советского периода экономической истории России необходимость освоения природных ресурсов Сибири никогда не подвергалась сомнению. Усилия региональных экономистов сосредоточивались на обосновании комплексного подхода к развитию Сибири, подразумевавшего повышение степени переработки добываемого сырья, развитие адекватной производственной инфраструктуры. Предполагалось, что такие меры помогут Сибири перерасти роль «сырьевого придатка» Европейской России, поскольку все осознавали опасность подобной ориентации в условиях исчерпаемости минерально-сырьевых ресурсов [Сибирь…, 1978; Экономические проблемы., 1974].

Оказали ли эти исследования хоть какое-то влияние на решения по размещению конкретных производств на конкретной территории? Для ответа на такой вопрос требуется фундаментальное исследование. С одной стороны, пришлось бы сопоставить все разработанные учеными и представленные в плановые органы рекомендации, а с другой стороны, проследить соответствующие постановления ЦК КПСС, решения Совмина, отраслевых министерств, явившиеся руководством к реальным действиям, и попытаться найти «пары соответствий». Проследить развитие проектов от начальной идеи до воплощения и оценить, как изменились их параметры в процессе согласований и утверждений, в процессе строительства и до ввода в действие – задача увлекательная, масштабная, но в обозримом будущем абсолютно невостребованная. Не проводя специального исследования, все же можно предположить, что научные рекомендации в части комплексного развития Сибири реализовывались в той степени, в какой они совпадали с интересами отраслевых министерств, с периодической необходимостью расшивки узких мест в снабжении специфическими ресурсами, и, наконец, с целями национальной безопасности в условиях многолетнего давления извне[1].