Необязательная страна - Вали Наср

142 Richard Haas, «Enough Is Enough», Newsweek, January 22, 2010, http://www.thedailybeast.com/nesweek/2010/01/21/enough-is-enough.html.

143 См.: Fareed Zakaria, «How History Could Deter Iranian Aggression», Washington Post, February 15, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/history-could-be-a-deterrent-to-iranian-aggression/2012/02/15/gIQA6UVcGR_story.html, а также «Deterring Iran Is Best Option», Washington Post, March 14, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/deterring-iran-is-the-best-option/2012/03/14/gIQA0Y9mCS_story.html; Bruce Riedel, «Iran Is Not an Existential Threat», thedailynewsegypt.com, January 20, 2012, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/global-views/iran-is-not-an-existential-threat.html; Maloney, «How to Contain a Nuclear Iran». Более ранние повторы этих дебатов освещены у: David Sanger, «Debate Grows on Nuclear Containment of Iran», New York Times, March 13, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/14/weekinreview/14sanger.html. О том, как может выглядеть сдерживание, см.: James Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, «After Iran Gets the Bomb: Containment and Its Complications», Foreign Affairs, March/April2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-iran-gets-the-bomb.

144 «Vice President Biden: Iraq Could Be One of the Great Achievements of This Administration», ABC News, February 11, 2011, http://abcnres.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/02/vice-president-biden-iraq-could-be-one-of-the-great-achievements-of-this-administration/.

145 Kenneth Pollock, «Maliki Dilemma», National Interest, February 1, 2012, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-maliki-dilemma-6418.

146 Toby Dodge, «The Resistible Rise of Nuri Al-Maliki», Opendemocracy, March 22, 2012, http://www.opendemocracy.net/toby-dodge/resistible-rise-of-nuri-al-maliki.

147 Liz Sly, «U.S. Policy on Iraq Questioned as Influence Wanes, Maliki Consolidates Power», Washington Post, April 8, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-policy-on-iraq-questioned-as-influence-wanes/2012/04/08/gIQAHEAU4S_story.html?hpid=z1.

148 Joseph R. Biden and Leslie H. Gelb, «Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq», New York Times, May 1, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/01/opinion/01biden.html?pagewanted=all.

149 Joseph R. Biden, «A Plan to Hold Iraq Together», Washington Post, August 24, 2006, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301419.html; «Biden Vows to Fight Troop Surge in Iraq», CBS News, February 11, 2009, http://www.cbsnews.com/2100—250_162—2299237.html.

150 Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor, The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama (New York: Pantheon, 2012), pp. 628—50.

151 Michael R. Gordon, «Failed Efforts and Challenges of America’s Last Months in Iraq», New York Times, September23, 2012, p. A1.

152 Martin S. Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012).

153 Gordon and Trainor, The Endgame, p. 657.

154 Sly, «U.S. Policy on Iraq Questioned».

155 Serena Chaudhry, «Feeling Marginalized, Some Iraq Sunnis Eye Autonomy», Reuters. January 1, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/01/us-iraq-politics-sunnis-idUSTRE80005620120101.

156 «Kurdish Leader Accuses Iraqi PM of Leading Country to ‘Dictatorship’»Al-Arabiya News, March 21, 2012, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/03/21/202063.html.

157 Salah Nasrawi, «2011: Why Did Iraq Miss the Arab Spring?» Ahram Online, December 31, 2011, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/30638/World/Region/-Why-did-Iraq-miss-the-Arab-Spring.aspx.

158 Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: Norton, 2006).

159 Vali Nasr, «When Shiites Rise», Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61733/vali-nasr/when-the-shiits-rise.

160 David Laitin, Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change Among the Yoruba (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986).

161 Существует множество научных исследований, объясняющих отсутствие межобщинного насилия, когда государства могут обосновать власть меньшинства, что затрудняет возможность бунта. Donald Horovitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Roger Peterson, Understanding Ethnic Violence (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Stuart Kaufman, Modern Hatreds: The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2001).

162 Vali Nasr, «Regional Implications of Shia Revival in Iraq», Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (Summer 2004): 7—24.

163 Vali Nasr, «Syria After the Fall», New York Times, July 29, 2012, p. SR4; Fouad Ajami, The Syrian Rebellion (Stanford, CA, Hoover Institution Press, 2012), pp. 111—34.

164 О важности этих гражданских связей см.: Ashutosh Varshney, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2002).

165 О том, как политический интерес мог нарушить политические взгляды на самоидентификацию и превратить его в насилие, см.: Paul R. Brass, The Production of Hindu-Muslim Violence in Contemporary India (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2011).

166 Steven Wilkinson, Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India (New York: Cambridge University, 2004).

167 Benjamin Miller, States, Nations, and Great Powers: The Sources of Regional War and Peace (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

168 Niall Fergusson, The War of the World (new York: Penguin, 2006), pp. 28–30, 255.

169 Vali Nasr, «If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly», New York Times, August 27, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=all.

170 Ayad Allawi, «How the U.S. and the World Can Help Iraq», Washington Post, August 31, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-the-us-and-world-can-help-iraq/2011/08/30/gIQAIPZxsJ_story.html.

171 Jim Lobe, «US Standing Plunges Across the Arab World», Al-Jazeera, July 14, 2011, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featutes/2011/07/2011714413787827.html.

172 Martin S. Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012), p. 112.

173 Там же. С. 121.

174 Там же. С. 122.

175 Там же.

176 Dan Ephron, «The Wrath of Mahmoud Abbas», Daily Beast, April 24, 2011. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/04/25/mahmoud-abbas-interview-palestinian-leader-frustration-with-obama.html.

177 Jim Lobe, «US Standing Plunges Across the Arab World», Al-Jazeera, July 14, 2011, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/07/2011714104413787827.html.

178 «President Barak Obama’s Inaugural Address», White House Blog, http://www, whitehouse.gov/blog/inaugural-address.

179 «Obama Pledges Support for Tunisia», Al-Jazeera, October 8, 2011, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/10/08/170747.html.

180 Indyk, Lieberthal, and O’Hanlon, Bending History, pp. 146—48. Смотри также комментарии президента, «Remarks by the President on the Situation in Egypt», http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/02/01/remarks-president-situation-egypt.

181 «Clinton Calls for ‘Peaceful, Orderly Transition’ in Egypt», McClatchy, January 30, 2012, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/01/30/107726/clinton-calls-for-peaceful-orderly.html.

182 Steven Cook, The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 272–307.

183 James Mann, The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Define American Power (New York: Viking, 2012).

184 Там же. С. 279.

185 Helene Cooper, Mark Landler, and David E. Sanger, «In U. S. Signals to Egypt, Обама Straddled a Rift», New York Times, February 12, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/world/middleeast/13diplomacy.hnml?pagewanted=all.

186 Robin Wright, Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012); Marc Lynch, The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East (New York: Public Affairs, 2012), pp. 43–66.

187 Alaa Al Aswany, От the State of Egypt: What Made the Revolution Inevitable (New York: Vintage, 2011); Narek Osman, Egypt on the Brink (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2011).

188 Alexis de Tocqueville, The Old Regime and the French Revolution (New York: Anchor, 1955), p. 177.

189 У «Мусульманского братства» было большинство в 38 % голосов и 235 из 498 мест в насчитывающем 508 мест Народном собрании (символические 10 мест заполнялись по назначению президента страны). Исламская салафитская партия «Аль-Нур», даже чуть более радикальная, чем «Братья-мусульмане», получила 28 % и 123 места.

190 Martin Indyk, Кеnneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon, «Scoring Obama’s Foreign Policy», Foreign Affairs, May/June 2012, p.

191 Tony Smith, America’s Mission: The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy in the Twentieth Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994).

192 Mary Elise Sarotte, 1989: The Struggle to Create Post-Cold War Europe (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).

193 Lynch, Arab Uprising.

194 Vali Nasr, «Economics Versus Extremism», Newsweek International, November 2, 2009, pp. 56–58.

195 Steven Cook, «On the Economy, Egypt’s New Leaders Should Follow Mubarak», Bloomberg View, May 26, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011—05–26/on-the-economy-egypt-s-new-leaders-should-follow-mubarak.html.

196 Ari Paul, «Egypt’s Labor Pains: For Workers the Revolution Has Just Begun», Dissent, Fall 2011, http://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/?article=4048.

197 Sinan Ulgen, «Supporting Arab Economics in Transition», International Economic Bulletin, July 5, 2012, http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/07/05/supporting-arab-economics-intransition/ck6p.

198 «Unfinished Business», Economist, February 4, 2012, p. 49.

199 Ulgen, «Supporting Arab Economics in Transition».

200 Ibrahim Saif, Challenges of Egypt’s Economic Transition (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011), p. 4, доступно по адресу; http://carnegieendowment.org/files/egypt_econ_trnsition.hdf.

201 Hafez Ghanem, “Two Economic Priorities for Post-Election Egypt: Macro-Stabilization and Corruption Control», Brookings Institution, June 25, 2012, http://www.brookings, edu/research/opinions/2012/06/25-post-election-egypt-ghanem.

202 Там же.

203 Carrie Rosefsky Wickham, Mobilizing Islam: Religion, Activism, and Political Change in Egypt (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002).

204 Jean-Paul Carvalho, A Theory of the Islamic Revival, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, March 2009, p. 39, http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/Research/wp/pdf/paper424.pdf.

205 Nathan J. Brown, When Victory Becomes an Option: Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Confronts Success (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012), доступно по электронному адресу: http://carnegieendowment.org/files/brotherhood_success.pdf.

206 Zeinab Abul-Magd, «The Egyptian Republic of Retired Generals», Foreign Policy, May 8, 2012, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/05/08/the_egyptian_republic_of_retired-generals.

207 David Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York: Crown, 2012), pp. 314—15.

208 «The Other Arab Spring», Economist, August 11, 2012, http://www.economist.com/node/21560243?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/the_other_arab_spring; Vali Nasr, Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World (New York: Free Press, 2009); Christopher M. Schroeder, «The Middle East Could Be a Cradle of Innovation», Harvard Business Review, October 12, 2012; http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/10/the_middle_east_could_be_a cra.html; Wright, Rock the Casbah.

209 Michael Mandelbaum, Democracy’s Good Name: The Rise and Risks of the World’s Most Popular Form of Government (New York: Public Affairs, 2007), pp. 91–92.

210 «Hilary Clinton Deserves Credit for U. S. Role in Libya: View», Bloomberg View, September 7, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011—09–08/hillary-clinton-deserves-credit-for-the-positive-u-s-role-in-libyz-view.html.

211 Mann, The Obamians, p. 279.

212 William Arkin and Dana Priest, Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State (Boston: Little, Brown, 2011).

213 Sanger, Confront and Conceal, pp. 243—72.